Canada now produces about 1.3 million vehicles a year, accounting for roughly 1.4% of global output, down from about 3.0 million vehicles and a 5.4% share in 1999, according to a recent infographic from the Ivey Business School.
The March 31 release is based on information from Lawrence National Centre for Policy and Management authored by Nancy Mendoza, a researcher with Ivey Business School’s Lawrence National Centre, and edited by Julian Birkinshaw, Romel Mostafa and Zoltan Agoston.
It examines Canada’s position in the North American auto sector using trade and production data in an effort to push back against widespread misconceptions propagated by America's president.
"The Trump administration has advanced a narrative that manufacturing trade deficits reflect unfair trade, justifying tariffs and aggressive reshoring to rebuild U.S. industrial capacity," the report states. "Consistent with this narrative, the administration imposed 25% tariffs on finished automobiles from Canada on national security grounds, aiming to bring vehicle production back to the United States."
Mendoza goes on to argue that this perspective isn't reflected in the data. "Canada’s auto sector is highly export-oriented, with more than 77% of output exported, largely to the U.S. While Canada records a surplus in finished vehicles and chassis, its share of this segment in the U.S. market is only about 6%, indicating a small and declining presence."
According to the report, the U.S. maintains a substantial surplus in auto parts. "When all three automotive segments—finished vehicles and chassis, vehicle bodies and trailers, and vehicle parts—are considered together, Canada runs an overall automotive trade deficit with the U.S."
The analysis shows Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector generated about $107.6 billion in revenue in 2023. Of that total, $83.2 billion, or 77.3%, came from exports, while $24.4 billion came from domestic sales.
Exports are heavily concentrated in the United States. In 2024, the U.S. accounted for about 96% of Canada’s finished vehicle and chassis exports, 96% of body and trailer exports and 90% of parts exports.
Ontario remains the centre of that activity, accounting for nearly 90% of Canada’s automotive exports, supported by about 700 parts suppliers and 500 tool, die and mold makers across the province’s manufacturing corridor.
Trade flows vary by segment. Canada recorded a $5.2 billion surplus in finished vehicles and chassis, but deficits of $1.1 billion in body and trailer manufacturing and $9.1 billion in parts. Combined, those segments produced an overall automotive trade deficit of about $5.0 billion with the United States.
The report also tracks shifts within North America. Mexico’s automotive trade surplus with the United States grew from US$23.4 billion in 2002 to US$92.4 billion in 2024, representing 47% of the U.S. automotive trade deficit.
