Canadian electric vehicle sales are forecast to rise 40.2% in 2026, while the country’s wider light-vehicle market grows 3.0%.
A new forecast from EV Volumes, part of J.D. Power, puts battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles at 13.1% of Canadian light-vehicle sales this year.
Canadian EV sales increased 5.3% year over year to 78,512 vehicles between January and May. Battery-electric vehicles accounted for 80.4% of those sales. Battery-electric sales rose 3.0%, while plug-in hybrid sales increased 16.2%.
The forecast follows several changes to federal EV policy. Canada has lowered the tariff on a limited number of Chinese-built EVs from 100% to 6%. An initial quota of 49,000 vehicles will be allowed into the country each year, with the limit set to rise to 70,000 over five years.
The federal government has also introduced the Electric Vehicle Affordability Program and replaced its former EV sales mandate with fleet-wide emissions standards.
“Additionally, the Electric Vehicle Affordability Program has been introduced,” said Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes. “This is paired with stricter emissions standards that replace the former EV sales mandate.”
Despite the expected increase, EVs are forecast to remain below the 13.7% share of Canadian light-vehicle sales recorded in 2024.
The forecast puts the Canadian EV share at 24.1% in 2030, 42.5% in 2035 and 61.8% in 2040.
The Canadian outlook differs from the United States, where EV sales are forecast to fall 15.5% in 2026. European EV sales are forecast to rise 23.0%, while global EV sales increase 7.8% to 23.3 million vehicles.
The growth would continue to increase the number and variety of electric vehicles entering Canadian collision repair facilities.
