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Report: Lux Research says only five automakers earn ‘positive take’ on self-driving

The 'Lux Innovation Grid' shows what Lux Research believes to be the position for the 12 OEMs the firm examined in its report. The grid shows two data points: how far along the company is from a technical standpoint and the relative strength of the business plan.

By Mike Davey

Boston, Massachusetts — June 21, 2016 — There’s no question that autonomous vehicle research is grabbing a lot of headlines, and many automotive companies are throwing their hat into the ring. But a new report from Lux Research, “Determining Who’s in the Fastlane for Autonomous Vehicles: A Comparison of Automotive OEM Plans for Driverless Cars,” indicates there are only five carmakers well-positioned to come out on top.

“At the end of the day, the company with the best business plan will win the race toward autonomy,” says Kevin See, Lux Research Director and author of the report.

The five OEMs to earn a positive take in Lux Research’s analysis of OEMs’ autonomous vehicle efforts are Daimler, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Volvo.

The scenario that Lux Research sees emerging is one with few significant differentations between technologies and “near-ubiquitous systems capabilities.” The company evaluated 12 carmakers on three criteria: demonstrated capability, investment and partnerships.

“Few companies will have a significant technology advantage, so winners will need to capitalize on novel business models from car sharing and ride sharing to monetizing their own data,” says See.

Lux Research has released a few key findings from the report:

– A few key players have shown significant progress compared to their peers, namely Daimler Trucks compared to the rest of the trucking market and Tesla, BMW, Daimler Mercedes-Benz, and Toyota, which have all showcased significant technical advancements over their direct competition in the market.

– Revenue challenge lies ahead. The rise of autonomous cars confronts carmakers with the challenge of retaining recurring revenues that could otherwise accrue to software makers and car dealers, besides monetizing their own data streams. They need to consider new business models as users shift to shared ownership, and consider comfort and ease of transportation over the driving experience.

– The future lies in mobility services, according to the report. Automotive companies aspiring to become mobility providers who earn money from services like ride-sharing rather than simply sales of cars are the most likely to succeed in this rapidly changing marketplace.

For more information, please visit luxresearchinc.com.

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