Focus Advisors' 2026 Mid-Year Review shows the U.S. collision repair industry experienced fewer transactions than the previous two years despite a record number of buyers, with smaller private equity-backed platforms growing five to seven times faster than major consolidators while the industry expects activity to rebound in late 2026 and 2027.
- Transaction decline: Only 81 locations acquired in 2026 (excluding Gerber's Joe Hudson's deal), fewer than 2024 and 2025 despite record buyer count
- Smaller platforms surge: PE-backed MSOs like VIVE Collision, Puget Collision, and BrightPoint grew 5-7 times faster than Big Four consolidators
- Tesla impact: Buyers increasingly discount Tesla-generated revenue in acquisition offers due to certification revocation concerns
- Industry stabilization: Revenue decline estimated at under 5% year-over-year with consolidators reporting stabilized or growing revenues
- Recovery expected: Focus Advisors predicts marked step-up in activity Q4 2026 through 2027 as larger consolidators access new capital
M & A advisory firm Focus Advisors’ 2026 Mid-Year Review report paints a more complicated picture than its 2025 Year in Review predictions, as acquisition activity slows despite a record number of buyers in the first half.
Published on Aug. 20, “Different Drivers, Different Gears: Data and Trends in the U.S. Collision Repair Industry” revealed that Focus Advisor’s initial 2026 forecast — anticipating more transactions, more buyers with capital to deploy and substantial activity — was only partially correct. According to the report, there have been “fewer transactions than in either of the past two years, despite a record number of buyers in the first half.”
Transaction opportunities are scrutinized and face longer closing times, driven by more activity from smaller buyers, including Collision Partners, Minuteman and Collision Leaders, in addition to G&C Auto Body accelerating activity beyond California.
The report noted that single-shop acquisitions among smaller MSOs continued in numerous markets, often going unnoticed alongside the disappearance of the smallest independent shops.
Excluding Gerber’s acquisition of Joe Hudson’s 258 locations, 81 locations were acquired in 2026, reflecting fewer deals and a wider buyer pool.
However, Focus Advisors views this as a pause rather than a trend, and expects a marked step-up in activity in the fourth quarter, continuing through 2027.
H1 Growth was powered by the smaller, largely PE-backed platforms, such as VIVE Collision, Puget Collision and BrightPoint Autobody Repair, which grew five to seven times faster than the Big Four.
“Smaller private equity-backed MSOs are becoming more active,” the report stated, noting that Collision Partners had a noticeable debut, acquiring K&M Auto Body in Hickory, N.C., just after the first half closed.
The report states that there is not a foreseen end to the private equity-backed consolidation trend, as where money is invested has changed in 2026. Buyers have focused on single shops or small MSOs at a time, while longer-standing platforms have shifted to growing through greenfield and brownfield development.
Operators have had to sharpen their focus, temporarily closing stores, making personnel changes and zeroing in on margins. Operators have also had to diversify their business, expanding to mechanical and maintenance work.
However, the U.S. collision repair industry appears to have found its footing, with the estimated decline in industry revenue just under 5% year-on-year.
Tesla continued to build in the first half, opening several large centres, with more slated for the second half. However, Tesla is “using any and all means to revoke certifications across the US,” the report stated, and “buyers of collision repair shops are increasingly discounting Tesla-generated revenue when they make their offers.”
Senior leadership changes reflected the industry navigating dynamic change. Classic Collision’s CEO, Toan Nguyen, stepped down while remaining on the board, and Brandon Hawkins, the former COO of AutoTech Solutions, was named the COO of OpenRoad Collision, among others.
Dealership transactions were active in the first half, with Presidio Group reporting 215 dealership deals. Noteworthy aftermarket transactions in H1 2026 included the following:
According to the report, staff at Focus Advisors “are hearing from several consolidators that revenues have stabilized or even returned to growth year-over-year; while that often represents a lower bar than a few years ago, most describe it as a ‘new normal’ rather than a temporary trough.” Industry insiders have also informed Focus Advisors that several larger established consolidators are accessing new lines of credit and additional capital to recommence acquisitions.
A more robust volume of transactions is expected to return in the second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
To read the full report, click here.
