Canadian sales of vehicles built outside North America have risen about 7% through August, while sales of North American-built models have fallen more than 10%, according to a new report from AutoForecast Solutions.
Sam Fiorani, vice-president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, reported the change in his October sales outlook, based on data released Oct. 1.
AutoForecast Solutions is a privately held automotive forecasting and consulting firm based in Chester Springs, Pa. Founded in 2014, the business supplies vehicle and powertrain forecasts, planning software and advisory services to manufacturers, suppliers, financial institutions and government agencies.
Its forecasting database covers 60 countries and more than 980 vehicle assembly plants. Forecasts are updated monthly.
Fiorani, who has more than 25 years of industry experience, linked the Canadian shift to buyers moving away from U.S.-made products following the introduction of U.S. tariffs.
Sales of North American-built cars and trucks have declined for 11 consecutive months, he wrote. Sales of vehicles built outside the region have increased in each of those months.
Despite the shift, North American-built vehicles still account for most Canadian sales.
Fiorani forecast Canadian vehicle sales of 1.89 million in 2026, down 1.8% from 2025. He projected a 1.3% recovery next year, although that increase depends on changes in trade arrangements.
“Growth of 1.3% in 2027 is highly dependent on a trade deal, either with the U.S. or with regions overseas,” he wrote.
In a separate section, Fiorani and Luke Volm, a data analyst at the firm, described changes in how manufacturers supply Canada.
Tesla, Hyundai, Nissan and Subaru have been shipping models from overseas rather than importing them from the United States, the authors wrote. Vehicle shipments through Canadian West Coast ports have increased 10% to record levels this year.
The Canadian sales slowdown comes alongside an increase in expected North American vehicle production.
Josh Shastal, director of vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, raised his regional production forecast by 75,000 vehicles from the previous month to 15.1 million.
Shastal, who has more than 10 years of industry experience, increased Tesla’s forecast by 100,000 vehicles because of higher expected Model Y output. Hyundai’s forecast rose by 45,000, largely because of the Tucson.
Those gains were partly offset by a 45,000-vehicle reduction for Stellantis, reflecting lower expected production of the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Ram 1500.
Globally, Shastal lowered his production forecast by 300,000 vehicles to 92.9 million. Combined reductions in Western and Eastern Europe totalled 300,000 vehicles.
Fiorani forecast a 0.4% decline in U.S. vehicle sales this year, followed by growth of 1.2% in 2027. He identified higher fuel costs and vehicle prices affected by tariffs as risks that could lead buyers to postpone purchases.
