Europe’s vehicle fleet is getting older and more complex, according to new analysis from S&P Global Mobility.
By the end of 2026, about 371 million vehicles in Europe will be out of warranty, or 84% of the total fleet. At the same time, more vehicles are being built with advanced driver assistance systems. About 132 million vehicles in Europe are expected to have ADAS, including more than 26 million with Level 2 or higher systems.
Level 2 systems can control steering and speed at the same time. Level 3 systems can handle driving in limited conditions without constant driver input. Levels 4 and 5 refer to vehicles that can operate on their own in defined areas or in all conditions.
This matters for repair because these systems rely on sensors, cameras and electronic controls. Repairs are more likely to require scanning and calibration before a vehicle can be returned to service.
The total number of vehicles is also growing. Globally, the vehicle fleet is expected to reach 1.9 billion by 2034, up from 1.6 billion in 2025. In Europe, the average vehicle is expected to be more than 14 years old in 2026. By 2035, about 71% of vehicles globally are expected to have some level of ADAS, up from 38% in 2025. In North America, the share is expected to reach about 69%.
Tariffs are also affecting the aftermarket by affecting parts sourcing strategies, supply chains and overall pricing. The U.S. imported US$139 billion in aftermarket parts in 2023, including 12% from Canada.
Access to repair data is another issue investigated within the report. As vehicles become more software-driven, shops need reliable access to diagnostic and repair information. In Australia, right-to-repair rules introduced in 2022 were followed by a 6.7% increase in industry turnover and a 40% drop in cases where repairers could not access the information needed to complete a job.
Canada does not have a comparable law. Access is mainly governed by a voluntary agreement between automakers and the aftermarket, while governments continue to examine how to handle data access in connected vehicles.
