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Tuesday Ticker ⁠— January 28, 2020

New NAFTA negotiations

Canada will begin ratifying the new NAFTA agreement⁠—now titled the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)⁠—this week, following approval from the U.S. Senate.

According to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the government will be introducing a way and means motion when Parliament resumes on Jan. 27. The government will table legislation to ratify the deal two days later on Jan. 29.

The Liberal government had been waiting for the U.S. to officially ratify the pact before introducing its own bill. Mexico ratified the pact in June 2019. The government did introduce a ratification bill last year but did not go further with it, preferring not to get ahead of the ratification process in the U.S. The bill died when the election was called.

The deal will require the support of at least one major opposition party to pass. 

The Liberals can likely depend on the support of the Conservatives to win ratification, despite the fact that the party has accused Trudeau of caving to concessions demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are expected to oppose USMCA. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has signalled that the Trudeau government won’t get an easy pass from his party on the new pact.

According to Singh, the deal was negotiated in a “behind-closed-doors, take-it-or-leave-it way” and his caucus will discuss whether to support it.

“Canadian workers shouldn’t have to rely on American politicians to protect Canadian jobs. They can count on us to look carefully at this agreement,” Singh said in a statement. “We’re going to discuss it in caucus and in the debate in the House and see if it actually delivers for Canadians.”

NDP MPs gathered in Ottawa last week for a two-day planning session to prepare for the re-opening of the House of Commons and the USMCA ratification.

The new pact was first agreed upon in Sept. 2018. For years, Trump has vowed to either quit or renegotiate NAFTA, which he blames for the loss of millions of U.S. factory jobs to low-wage Mexico.

The biggest changes to the deal require an increase in North American content in vehicles built in the region. With the NAFTA deal, 62.5 percent of steel and aluminum had to be from a North American source⁠; with the new deal, 75 percent of aluminum and steel used in North American vehicles must be sourced from the region.

In addition, 40 percent to 45 percent of vehicle content must come from high-wage areas paying more than $16 an hour⁠—namely in the United States and Canada.

Porsche’s new position

Porsche North American is the latest automaker to move from monthly to quarterly Canadian and U.S. sales reports after the company announced the shift last week.

The German luxury automaker said monthly sales figures “rarely capture the overall picture of how the business is developing.”

“Quarterly reporting better aligns with the Porsche premium brand position that is focused on performance and experience,” continued Porsche Cars North America CEO Klaus Zellmer.

Porsche’s Canadian sales decreased for the third straight month in December after 93 consecutive monthly gains⁠—and the automaker made it through last year’s industry’s downturn with a 1.4 percent gain overall. 

The move follows the Big Three Detroit automakers⁠—General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler⁠—all of which have announced over the past two years that the companies would be switching from monthly to quarterly sales reports in the U.S.

Porsche is making the move effective immediately and will report first-quarter Canadian and U.S. sales in April.

Tricky times for Tesla

Much like Elon Musk’s Falcon rockets, Tesla stock is cruising at stratospheric levels⁠—but the price of the EV automaker’s shares could hit afterburners or suddenly stall this week come the release of Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings.

According to market analysts, the state of Tesla’s shares is dependent on what the company delivers with its fourth-quarter earnings, which are said to be released by the end of this week. 

Tesla stock has a history of being erratic⁠—with CEO Elon Musk frequently making bold claims about production and profitability that have been a challenge for analysts to discern. 

There is reason to be concerned, however⁠—last Wednesday, the company’s stock shot up to a record high as it reached a market valuation of more than $100 billion for the first time. Tesla also overtook Volkswagen as the second-most-valuable auto company, even though Volkswagen sells 30 times more cars.

Tesla’s market value is more than both General Motors and Ford combined.

Tesla stock has more than doubled since Oct. 23, the day is jumped more than 17 percent after reporting third-quarter earnings that showed a profit unexpected by Wall Street.  

However, in the prior quarter, Tesla plunged 14 percent when it reported second-quarter results that missed Wall Street’s estimates.

Since June 3, Tesla stock has soared 220 percent. Tesla shares closed at 564.82 on Friday.

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