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Chart showing approximate position of various OEs in relation to autonomous vehicle research.
by Jeff Sanford  
 
Toronto, Ontario -- September 21, 2015 -- A new report assess the strategy of eighteen autonomous vehicle OEMs with respect to their automated car programs. 
 
Autonomous driving has become the new and trendy subject in the auto industry of late. But according to the new report from Navigent, self-driving autos are not yet a realistic objective. According to the report fully automated vehicles “that operate themselves with no driver present” are still a decade away. The “incremental systems” necessary to allow such vehicles to exist are expected to make their way into production over the next five to ten years.
 
The report notes that a desire to reduce injuries and deaths from traffic accidents is the driving factor in the push toward AVs. The other driver of this trend is the possibility of reducing overall energy use. If cars can be programmed to accelerate or brake at optimal rates and travel at optimal speeds the use of gasoline can be maximized in terms of efficiency. According to the Navigent analysts “reliability and security, as well as liability issues, pose major barriers to the adoption of autonomous driving.”
 
It is expected that by 2020 manufacturers will offer enhanced self-driving capability that includes the ability to change lanes and follow simple directions from a navigation system. Drivers will still be needed to monitor progress and be prepared to take over when the traffic situation gets “too complex.”
 
Truly driverless cars are expected by 2025, but the appearance of self-driving cars by that point depends on legislative changes as well as steady improvements in technology. Some commentators have suggested politicians will slow the adoption rate of self-driving cars by delaying the necessary legislation as a way of giving insurance companies time to adapt to the coming changes.
 
This Navigant Research Leaderboard Report rates OEMs on 12 criteria: vision, go-to-market strategy, partnerships, production strategy, technology, geographic reach, sales, marketing, and distribution, product capability, product quality and reliability, product portfolio, pricing, and company commitment.
 
For more information on the Navigant paper, please click here
 

 

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